Product Odds Guide

2026 Topps Update Series Baseball

Find the hardest published pulls, compare box formats, and explore the odds for the cards you collect.

Official odds captured Nov 5, 2026 from Topps’ published odds sheet

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Start with the rarest pulls

What’s hardest to pull?

Ranked by the largest published “1 in N packs” denominator across this product’s formats. Each card set or parallel appears once, with the format behind that rate. These are odds for a card set, not a specific player or a guarantee of value.

Top 5 hardest published pulls

All card sets and parallels, including numbered cards.

75 Years Of Topps Baseball Autographs Platinum 1 in 2,737,920 packs Value Box · Autograph
75 Years Of Topps Die Cut Autographs Platinum 1 in 2,737,920 packs Value Box · Autograph
First Pitch Autograph Foilfractor /1 1 in 2,737,920 packs Value Box · Autograph
First Pitch Foilfractor /1 1 in 2,737,920 packs Value Box · Numbered
Postseason Performance Autographs Platinum 1 in 2,737,920 packs Value Box · Autograph

Top 5 hardest verified non-numbered pulls

Verified against the checklist as non-numbered. Cards with uncertain numbering are excluded.

No verified entries with published odds are available.

0 verified non-numbered entries available.

Choose a box

Compare box formats

Verified box structure and stated guarantees. Missing figures are marked “Not published”.

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Format	Box structure	Stated guarantee	Find a box
Hobby	20 packs × 12 cards240 cards per box	1 autograph or relic	Shop Hobby on eBay
Jumbo	10 packs × 40 cards400 cards per box	1 autograph and 1 relic	Shop Jumbo on eBay
Fanatics	8 packs × 12 cards96 cards per box	None stated	Shop Fanatics on eBay
Value Box	6 packs × 12 cards72 cards per box	None stated	Shop Value Box on eBay
Club Super Box	Not published packs × Not published cardsNot published cards per box	None stated	Shop Club Super Box on eBay
Fat Pack	Not published packs × Not published cardsNot published cards per box	None stated	Shop Fat Pack on eBay
Hanger Box	Not published packs × Not published cardsNot published cards per box	None stated	Shop Hanger Box on eBay
Japan Exclusive	Not published packs × Not published cardsNot published cards per box	None stated	Shop Japan Exclusive on eBay
Super Box	Not published packs × Not published cardsNot published cards per box	None stated	Shop Super Box on eBay

More box details and checklist coverage

Counts describe distinct card sets in the odds, not expected cards per box. “Easiest auto” refers to one card set’s published odds, not the combined chance of any autograph.

Format	Boxes per case	Card sets	Autos / Relics / SSPs	Easiest auto
Hobby	Not confirmed	231 of 281	104 / 42 / 10	1 in 209 packs
Jumbo	Not confirmed	235 of 281	104 / 42 / 10	1 in 30 packs
Fanatics	Not confirmed	200 of 281	73 / 28 / 7	1 in 972 packs
Value Box	Not confirmed	233 of 281	92 / 33 / 9	1 in 767 packs
Club Super Box	Not confirmed	223 of 281	89 / 32 / 9	1 in 844 packs
Fat Pack	Not confirmed	218 of 281	87 / 32 / 8	1 in 329 packs
Hanger Box	Not confirmed	226 of 281	88 / 32 / 8	1 in 543 packs
Japan Exclusive	Not confirmed	220 of 281	89 / 32 / 10	1 in 414 packs
Super Box	Not confirmed	224 of 281	89 / 32 / 9	1 in 1,325 packs

Find your card set

Detailed Odds Explorer

Search all 281 card sets with published odds. Open a row to compare its formats and view the full checklist.

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All formats: rarest uses each set’s hardest published rate; most common uses its easiest. Selecting a format uses only its published odds.

Card set / parallel	Hardest published odds
75 Years Of Topps Baseball Autographs Platinum Auto Numbering unverified	1 in 2,737,920 packsValue Box
75 Years Of Topps Die Cut Autographs Platinum Auto Numbering unverified	1 in 2,737,920 packsValue Box
First Pitch Autograph Foilfractor /1 Auto Numbered	1 in 2,737,920 packsValue Box
First Pitch Foilfractor /1 Numbered	1 in 2,737,920 packsValue Box
Postseason Performance Autographs Platinum Auto Numbering unverified	1 in 2,737,920 packsValue Box
Real One Relics Foilfractor Relic Numbering unverified	1 in 2,737,920 packsValue Box
All Aces Gold /1 SSP Numbered	1 in 2,419,200 packsClub Super Box
Base Card Rookie 1952 Autograph Variation Black /10 Auto Numbered	1 in 2,419,200 packsClub Super Box
World Champion Autographs Red /5 Auto Numbered	1 in 2,419,200 packsClub Super Box
World Champion Autographs Platinum Auto Numbering unverified	1 in 1,987,920 packsHobby
75 Years Of Topps Baseball Autographs Auto Numbering unverified	1 in 1,368,960 packsValue Box
75 Years Of Topps Die Cut Autographs Red /5 Auto Numbered	1 in 1,368,960 packsValue Box
All Kings Gold /1 SSP Numbered	1 in 1,368,960 packsValue Box
First Pitch Autograph Red /5 Auto Numbered	1 in 1,368,960 packsValue Box
Iconic Buyback Redemption Cards Numbering unverified	1 in 1,368,960 packsValue Box

Showing 15 of 281 card sets.

How to read these odds

Published pack odds are Topps’ numbers, expressed as “1 in N packs”. A larger N means a harder pull. These rates apply to a card set or parallel, not a specific player.
Numbering comes from the checklist’s serial-number information. Sets with consistently blank serial numbers are classified as non-numbered. Conflicting or unmatched sets remain unverified; serial numbers in a set name are treated as numbered.
Calculated estimate uses published pack odds and a verified packs-per-box count, assuming packs are independent. Expected copies and the approximate chance of at least one are estimates, not guarantees.
Guaranteed hit is a stated promise. “1 autograph or relic” promises one or the other, not necessarily an autograph.
Multiple published rates for the same set and format are retained in row details. Rankings use the largest denominator; most-common sorting uses the smallest.
Not published / Not confirmed / — mean a verified figure is unavailable. Missing odds do not mean a pull is impossible.

SSP labels group rare inserts curated by Savvy. See sources and classification for checklist grouping, parallel availability, source corrections, and format differences.